Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway (601816) Company Study: Core Assets in Railways Can Be Expected to Grow
The Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway runs through the golden corridor in the economically developed areas of the east, and its location advantage guarantees passenger demand.
The Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway passes through densely populated provinces on the eastern coast, and the total population through the provinces and cities accounts for the entire country.
32%, the total GDP accounts for 35 of the country.
2%, connecting the two super hubs of Beijing and Shanghai, the location advantage is significant.
We believe that the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway has the characteristics of low fares and high timeliness, and has the ability to replace air and road transport, and has strong growth.
The company’s operating income in 2018 was 311.
58 ppm, an increase of 5 in ten years.
42%, net profit attributed to mother 102.
48 ppm, an increase of 13 in ten years.
Operating costs are mostly “fixed costs”, with a combination of profit flexibility.
The main costs of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail include motor vehicle use fees, commissioned transportation management fees, depreciation expenditures, energy expenditures, and high-speed rail transportation capacity guarantee fees. These five items account for 97%.
Operating costs are mainly related to the number of trains running, but not to passenger traffic, reflecting a slower growth in costs than in revenues. The operating cost of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway in 2018 was 162.
99 ppm, a ten-year increase2.
28%, the proportion of income continued to decline, and the coefficient of profit elasticity.
According to the sensitivity calculation, if the line load factor increases to 82.
5%, the relative growth of net profit in 20207.
32%; if capacity increases by 15%, net profit will increase by 24 in 2020.
92%; if average unit mileage is increased by 15%, net profit will increase by 30% in 2020.
Fund-raising project acquired Jingfu Anhui Company.
The Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail issuance of public shares is planned to issue no more than 6,256,830,000 shares, accounting for no more than 12 after the issuance.
8%. The funds raised will be used to acquire Jingfu Anhui Company 65 after 西安耍耍网 deducting the issuance expenses.
0759% equity with a purchase consideration of 500.
10 billion shares. After the completion of the acquisition, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail will become the controlling shareholder of Beijing-Fujian Anhui.
Jingfu Anhui is currently in the stage of gradual development. In the market development stage, the transition to high-speed rail along the urbanization process has accelerated, the urban agglomerations are more closely linked, human resources flows will gradually accelerate, and passenger density along the lines will gradually increase.Economic benefit estimates can be effectively improved.
Investment strategy: After the acquisition of the consolidated statement of Jingfu Anhui Company, we predict that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-2021 will be 合肥夜网 116.
88 ppm, 115.
8.5 billion, 128.
650,000 yuan, an increase of 14%, -0.
9%, 11%, considering the company’s growth alternatives, as high-quality core assets, we give Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail 2020 target price of 5.
52 yuan, corresponding to 23 times the estimate.
Risk reminder: macroeconomic downside risks. The model estimates are inconsistent with actual risks.