Oil prices return to the 5 yuan era, the largest decline in 12 years

Oil prices return to the 5 yuan era, the largest decline in 12 years
The price of gasoline No. 95 is 0 per price increase.84 yuan; after another four years, the “floor price” was touched again; the downturn in international oil prices affected the oil and gas industry. Some foreign companies were crushed at 24:00 on March 17th, and the domestic product oil price adjustment window opened.The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice saying that gasoline per ton was reduced by 1,015 yuan and diesel by 975 yuan, the largest single drop since 2008.This is the third reduction in refined oil prices in 2020.Longzhong information data shows that after this round of price adjustments, the price of diesel in most parts of the country is at 5.5 yuan -5.At around 6 yuan / liter, the retail price of No. 92 gasoline is at 5.4 yuan -5.5 yuan / liter, which means that oil prices return to the “5 yuan” era.  The international oil price has fallen below US $ 40 per barrel, breaking the US $ 40 “floor price” set by domestic oil prices, and the portion below US $ 40 will no longer be lowered.The lower limit of the last contracted product oil contraction was from January to April 2016.Structure, crude oil prices continue to slump, and Chesapeake Energy, the leader of the American shale gas revolution, has been crushed.Against this background, what is the living environment facing the groundwater oil and gas industry chain?  Every petrol rises and falls by 0.About 8 yuan to fill a box of oil and 40 yuan less for this round of oil price adjustment, equivalent to a reduction of 0 per 89 liters of gasoline.75 yuan, 92 gasoline reduced by 0.79 yuan, No. 95 gasoline is reduced by 0.84 yuan, 0 diesel is reduced by 0.83 yuan.  Based on the calculation of an ordinary private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L, after the price adjustment, the car owners spent about 40 yuan to fill a box of No. 92 gasoline.According to the fuel consumption of 7L-8L vehicles per 100 kilometers in the urban area, the average cost per thousand kilometers traveled is reduced by about 55-63 yuan.For a large logistics transportation vehicle with a full load of 50 tons, the fuel cost is reduced by about 332 yuan per 1,000 kilometers.  Li Chunyan, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, said: “In the price adjustment cycle (March 4-March 17), the rate of change in international oil prices has deepened negatively.The main influencing factors are as follows: the spread of overseas public health incidents and continued suppression of demand; OPEC and Russia have not reached an agreement on the extension of production cuts, and market share oil-producing countries compete for market share through price wars, triggering an international oil price plunge; global economic recovery prospectStill vulnerable.”From the perspective of the recent market decline, purchases and sales in East China are weak, and the demand for gasoline and diesel is weak. It is difficult to change the main business. Most of the main changes are just small orders, with an average daily volume ranging from 10-200 tons.”At present, the center of gravity of the main diesel wholesale end of East China is adjusted to around 5100-5400 yuan / ton, and the center of gravity of gasoline transactions is about 5100-5300 yuan / ton.”Longzhong crude oil analyst Xue Wenyu said.  Since 2020, domestic product oil price adjustments have shown a pattern of “three falls and two stranded”.According to Xu Wenwen, a refined oil analyst with Longzhong Information, after the price adjustment, the price of gasoline will be reduced by 1,850 yuan / ton this year, and by 1,780 yuan / ton for diesel.  After four years, the oil price once again touched the lower price limit. On March 17, Peng Shaozong, deputy director of the Price Division of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the international oil price has fallen below US $ 40 per barrel, breaking the US $ 40 set by domestic oil prices.”Floor price”.At 24:00 on the 17th, the domestic oil price will be adjusted according to the corresponding level of 40 US dollars, and the part below 40 US dollars will not be lowered.  The domestic refined oil price adjustment mechanism has set upper and lower limits, the upper limit is 130 US dollars per barrel, and the lower limit is 40 US dollars per barrel, that is, when the price of crude oil in the international market where domestic refined oil prices are linked is higher than 130 US dollars per barrel, gasoline and diesel are the highestNo or no mention of retail prices; when it is less than $ 40, the maximum retail price will no longer be lowered.  The last time oil reached the lower limit of contraction was in 2016.From January to April of that year, international crude oil prices fell sharply, hitting the lower limit of domestic refined oil price changes. Domestic oil prices were not adjusted according to the mechanism below $ 40.  Peng Shaozong said that the upper and lower limits are mainly taken into consideration as both a major oil importing and consuming country and a major oil producer, too high or too low oil prices will bring adverse effects.Too high will increase the burden on the oil industry and consumers and affect the stable operation of the national economy; too low will affect the normal development of the domestic crude oil extraction industry, reduce self-sufficiency, and lead to rising foreign dependence, which is not conducive to ensuring domestic energy security.  It should be noted that when the oil price exceeds the lower limit, the amount of domestic refined oil prices that have not been adjusted is not directly left to the enterprise, and all the risk reserves are fully paid to the central government in accordance with the provisions of the “Measures for the Collection and Management of Oil Price Risk Reserves”Treasury, including general public budget management, pooling funds for energy conservation forecasting, improving oil quality, ensuring oil supply security, and funding sources for safeguards taken in response to changes in international oil prices.  ■ It is predicted that the probability of stranding the next round of price adjustment will be relatively large.At present, the main refineries and Shandong independent refineries have a slight upward trend, and the overall resource supply shows a slight upward trend.In the early stage, after several times of bottoming out, the overall inventory remained high, and the recent market news is still weak. Terminals are not motivated to hoard goods. They are mainly small-volume multi-frequency purchases, and short-term market inventory still needs time to consume.Before the advent of the next round of price adjustment cycle (the next round of price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on March 31, 2020), it is expected that there will still be a decline in the domestic refined oil market.”Li Chunyan said.  Li Chunyan further explained that domestic health incidents are gradually decreasing, the state encourages enterprises above the designated size to resume production, personnel from major labor provinces are in place, and terminal logistics and outdoor projects are resumed.However, after the bargain replenishment, the middlemen’s overall inventory is high, and the recent international crude oil prices continue to fall, dragging the market to a hollow state, and the domestic refined oil market prices are mainly fluctuating down.  Long Zhong Information analyst Li Yan said that Russia and Saudi Arabia have successively proposed plans to increase production. The overseas epidemic situation is still spreading. The global stock market has repeatedly melted, which has brought continuous bearish pressure to the current international crude oil market.Based on the current international crude oil price level, the next round of product oil price adjustment will show a downward trend, with a range of about 740 yuan / ton. However, because the international oil price has exceeded 40 US dollars / barrel, the next round of high probability will trigger the protection mechanismThe probability of stranded product oil price adjustment.  Combined with the analysis of the current Longzhong data model, compared with the previous price adjustment cycle, the wholesale price of refined oil has recently fallen through, so the profit margin of gas stations has slightly increased from the previous period.Among them, the gasoline retail profit of main gas stations increased by an average of 160 yuan / ton; the main retail profit of diesel increased by 150 yuan / ton.Retail profits and profits increased by 351 yuan / ton.  After the current round of refined oil price reduction was fulfilled, the retail price limit was lowered, and it is predicted that subsequent retail profits will decline.  ■ Extended oil prices plunge The dangers and opportunities of the national petrochemical industry The oil prices have continued to slump recently. On March 16, US WTI crude oil futures fell by 3.$ 03 for 28.$ 70 / barrel; Brent crude oil futures fell 3.$ 80 for 30.05 USD / barrel.According to agency estimates, as of March 16, the comprehensive change rate of crude oil was -28.87%.  On March 9, futures detained the most intense selling ever. Brent crude oil plunged 31% at the opening on the 17th, and then narrowed down by more than 20%, reaching a minimum of 31.$ 02 / barrel, the largest decline since the Gulf War in January 1991.On one trading day of the Air Force, Brent crude oil has plummeted by 10%.  Crude oil prices continue to slump, and some companies have been crushed.According to a Reuters report, Chesapeake Energy, the leader of the US shale gas revolution, has sought help from debt restructuring consultants as the first large American energy company to be overwhelmed by the collapse in oil prices.  ”The main business of Chesapeake is shale gas. Since the shale revolution, shale gas prices have also suffered a major impact. Its own operational problems have existed a few years ago. This plunge in oil prices is only the last to crush the camel.A straw.China is a large oil and gas demand country, and the low oil and gas price environment is relatively favorable. At present, there are no similar companies that have been crushed by the collapse of oil prices.Xiaolan Lan, manager of Tianfeng Futures Investment Consulting Department, told the sauna and Yewang.  At present, as a crude oil importer, can we enjoy the dividend of low oil prices?Xiao Lanlan said that the upstream and upstream oil and gas assets are mainly concentrated in the disposal of three barrels of oil (PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC), and the crude oil produced is directly provided to the three barrels of oil in the midstream refinery. The actual domestic production cost is about 40 US dollars per barrelIn the case of a plunge in international oil prices, the refinery will give priority to the production of crude oil from its own flour to form a closed loop to ensure normal production and operation.  Xiao Lanlan analyzed that from the perspective of the refinery, most of the domestic resources are only a part of the source of raw materials. China is a large crude oil importing country, and its import dependence is 70%. However, whether it can enjoy the dividend of low oil prices depends on the demand during the epidemic.Recovery situation.  Jinlianchuang crude oil analyst told the sauna, Yewang, this time the impact of crude oil on the domestic market is more reflected in lower oil prices.China’s crude oil exports have decreased, and this sharp drop in crude oil is actually conducive to crude oil imports, which can increase China’s strategic reserves of crude oil. Therefore, lower crude oil import prices may help companies reduce costs. For China, the overall benefits outweigh the disadvantages.  Sauna, Ye Wang Zhang Shuxin