Archives March 2020

Hongqi Chain (002697): Southwest Convenience Supermarket Leading Community + Fresh Fresh Builds Core Barriers

Hongqi Chain (002697): Southwest Convenience Supermarket Leading Community + Fresh Fresh Builds Core Barriers
The company is the leader of convenience chain supermarkets in Southwest China. The main business is driven by same-store sales growth, continuous expansion of stores and improved operating efficiency, and strives to maintain stable 苏州夜网论坛 growth. Xinnet Bank strives to continue to provide the company with considerable investment income, while driving the company’s continued growth in performance. The convenience store industry is growing at a high speed, and the company’s same store is expected to maintain a steady growth level, and Chengdu and Sichuan Province have ample space to open stores.With the development of the economy and the increase of GDP per capita, consumers are more willing to pay a premium for the convenience of shopping.According to international experience, when the per capita GDP exceeds US $ 10,000, the convenience store industry will enter a rapid growth period. In 2018, the per capita GDP (approximately US $ 9,400) has approached this value and is expected to enter a stage of rapid growth.At present, there are more than 5,800 convenience stores in Chengdu. By benchmarking domestic high-density cities and referring to the development plan of the Chengdu government, we estimate that Chengdu’s convenience store space is about 10,000, and the store opening space is still broad.At the same time, the steady growth of Sichuan’s economy has also provided room for development of the province’s convenience store industry. Yonghui’s shareholding strengthens the company’s fresh operation ability, and the improvement of operating efficiency drives the growth of main business performance.By 2018, we will start freshening the stores, and the average sales of these stores will increase by about 30%, with obvious effects.In addition, the company’s scale through the improvement of supplier service capabilities and the application of big data, the continuous optimization of supply chain efficiency and product structure, led to the company’s continuous improvement in gross profit margin and inventory turnover days, continued to improve operating efficiency, driving growth in main business performance. Pay attention to the three important points that trigger the company ‘s investment, and give it a “Highly Recommended-A” rating: The company is in line with the trend of product retail development and has become a two-characteristic feature of small stores (causing the track) and fresh products (yonghui becomes).Rare offline companies have continued to expand capabilities.The company has the advantages of brand, supply chain, and management in the region. More fully, it cooperates with Yonghui. The freshwater drainage capacity and management capacity will be significantly improved.The expansion of the company’s small stores will break the real estate cycle attributes of retail companies, and the same store will better reflect the merchandise and management capabilities.Three important points that trigger the company’s investment: 1. The expansion speed of stores in high-quality racetracks; 2. The depth of cooperation with Yonghui’s fresh produce system; 3. The optimization of the store’s modern management system.With reference to the estimated level of comparable companies, the company’s main business is given 30-35 times PE in 2019, and Xinwang Bank 10 times PE, corresponding to a target price of 7.81-8.98 yuan, giving the company a “strong recommendation-A” rating. Risk Warning: Competition in Chengdu’s convenience industry is intensifying, and the development of Xinwang Bank is not up to expectations.

Moving, the prostate benefits

Moving, the prostate benefits
Globally, the incidence of prostate cancer is on the rise and has become the second most common cancer in men.The National Cancer Institute lists age, family history, and levels of vitamin E, folic acid, and calcium in the body as risk factors for the disease, which involves 武汉夜生活网 lifestyle.Recently, a large-scale study in the United Kingdom showed that lack of exercise is significantly related to the incidence of prostate cancer.  An international joint research team composed of institutions such as the University of Bristol and Imperial College London used the Mendelian randomization method to examine 22 prostate cancer risk factors.Researchers will be 7.90,000 participants and 6 with prostate cancer.A comparative analysis of the medical information of 10,000 healthy participants found that participants with “active” gene mutations exercised more than normal people, and their risk of developing prostate cancer was lower than those who did not carry this gene mutation.51%.The research literature was published in the recently published International Journal of Epidemiology.  The 南京桑拿网 study’s lead author, Sarah Lewis, PhD in genetic epidemiology at the University of Bristol School of Medicine, points out that the so-called “exercise” replaces physical exercise, which can include all forms of physical activity, so encouraging men to increase their physical activity may prevent prostate cancer.The first creative use.Anna Dias Fant, director of the British Cancer Research Foundation, said they will continue to use the method to explore the impact of other lifestyle factors on prostate cancer.(High School Lin Lele)

Wuliangye (000858): Significant reform results and high growth in cash flow

Wuliangye (000858): Significant reform results and high growth in cash flow

The company announced revenue of 371 for the first three quarters of 2019.

20,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.

84%; revenue in the third quarter alone was 99.

51 ppm, an increase of 27 in ten years.


The growth rate of 19Q3 slightly accelerated compared with the first half of the year. It is expected that the volume and price of high-end wines will increase and accelerate.

The series of wines continue to focus on the “4 + 4” core brands, and the revenue growth rate is expected to be lower than that of high-end wines.

Sales revenue for the first three quarters was 423.

24 ppm, an increase of 60 in ten years.

08%, mainly due to the decline in notes receivable and the increase in advance receipts.

At the end of the third quarter, bills receivable decreased by 37 from the initial period.

9.6 billion to 123.

3.9 billion, down 13 each year.

83%, the decrease in bills was mainly due to the gradual receipt of bills.

The accounts received in advance at the end of the third quarter decreased by 8 from the beginning.

4.2 billion to 58.

65 ppm, a sharp increase of 140 previously.


Net profit attributable to mothers in the first three quarters of 19 was 125.

44 ppm, an increase of 32 in ten years.

12%; 19Q3 returns to net 南京桑拿论坛 profit of the mother 32.

08 million yuan, an increase of 34 in ten years.


The rapid growth of net profit over the same period was mainly due to the decline in business taxes and surcharges.

In the first three quarters, the gross profit margin increased by 0.

34pct to 73.

81%, we expect mainly due to higher prices, structural upgrades and lower substitution rates.

Taxes and surcharges increased slightly in the first three quarters and decreased by 1.

16 points to 13.

88% is expected to be related to the rhythm of tax payment.

Deepening the reform and releasing dividends is expected to complete the expected revenue target for 19 years. We believe that the company will see expected improvements in management, products and channels. The release of reform dividends is expected to complete this 25% revenue growth target.

Considering that the company has reduced the merger and expansion ratio of new product price increases this year, profitability is expected to further improve.

Profit forecast predicts that the company’s revenue will be 500 in 19-21.



86 ppm, an increase of 25 in ten years.

04% / 19.

84% / 17.83%; net profit was 174.



420,000 yuan, an increase of 30 in ten years.

10% / 26.

55% / 22.

26%; EPS are 4 respectively.



94 yuan / share, corresponding to PE of 29/23/19 times, with reference to the historical PE estimate (annual report) of the past three years for the range of 14-32 times, we give the company 27 times PE in 2020, a reasonable value of 153.

36 yuan / share, maintain BUY rating.

Risk reminder: the reform progress is less than expected, the approval price increase is less than expected, food safety risks

Industrial Bank (601166): Slightly Bad Revenue Continues to Improve

Industrial Bank (601166): Slightly Bad Revenue Continues to Improve

Introduction to this report: The 19-year express report basically meets expectations.

Revenue decreased slightly, profit growth was stable, and non-performing continued to improve.

In 2020, the focus will be on the support of restorative investment in assets to support performance.

Maintain target price of 25.

20 yuan, increase the level.

Investment points: Investment advice: Asset launch speed or new driving force for performance.

Maintain 19/20/21 net profit growth forecast.

07% / 10.

65% / 11.

36%, corresponding to EPS 3.



85 yuan, BVPS23.



97 yuan, the current price corresponds to 6.



06 times PE, 0.



67 times PB.

Maintain target price of 25.

20 yuan, corresponding to 20 years 0.

96 times PB, 29% of current price space, increase holdings.

Latest data: 19A revenue for ten years +14.

6%, -4.

6pc; net profit ten years +8.

7%, +0.

1; ROE14.

0%, one year -0.


Defective rate 1.

54%, -1bp from the ring.

Revenue was slightly anesthetized.

19A revenue growth rate was -4.

6pc, there are two reasons to judge: ① the loose monetary policy in the second half of 18 caused the gradual decline in inter-bank interest rates, which led to a high base for Industrial Bank ‘s net interest income in 18Q4;

Profit 上海夜网论坛 growth rate is +0.1pc, profitability remains stable.

Asset delivery is stable.

19A total assets exceed +6.

4%, -0.


Compared with peers, it is significantly lower than Ping An Bank and CITIC Bank, which have disclosed their breaking news. Compared with themselves, although it has improved in 2018, it still objectively drags down revenue performance.

Considering: ① the non-standard disposal of itself is basically over; ② the marginal implementation of the new rules for asset management is relaxed; ③ the traditional industrial advantage of the industry, judging the restoration of assets in 2020 or the effect of price premiums, has become a new driving force for revenue.
The bad continues to improve.
After the tightening in 19H1, the non-performing rate still decreased by 1bp quarter by quarter, and the asset quality trend has not changed.

Judging from the decline in the non-performing rate, the provision level may remain stable.

Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050) Annual Report Review: Steady Growth in Refrigeration, New Energy Vehicle Business Rapidly Expand

Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050) Annual Report Review: Steady Growth in Refrigeration, New Energy Vehicle Business Rapidly Expand

The company released its 2018 annual report, with revenue growing by 13 in ten years.

10%, net profit attributable to mothers grows by 4 per year.


The company achieved 108 operating income in 18 years.

36 ppm, an increase of 13 in ten years.

10%; realize net profit of return to mother 12.

9.2 billion, an annual increase of 4.

56%; in the fourth 成都桑拿网 quarter alone, the company achieved operating income of 25.

71 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.

49%, net profit attributable to mothers2.

69 ppm, a ten-year increase4.


In 2018, the company plans to distribute a dividend of 0 to all shareholders.

25 yuan / share, combined with the semi-annual in 2018 0.

The quantitative dividend of 10 yuan, a total of 18 years corresponding to the closing price on April 2 exchange rate reached 2.

13%, the budget company plans to use capital reserves to all shareholders to increase 3 shares for every 10 shares.

The refrigeration business grew steadily, and the new energy vehicle business expanded rapidly.

In 18 years, the company’s refrigeration business realized a revenue scale of 59.

61 ppm, an increase of 21 in ten years.

03%, in which the acquisition of AIF in 18 years and Qingdao Debaiyi consolidated income were 1 respectively.

51 and 0.

4.0 billion; automotive business realized 14.

32 ppm, an increase of 18 years.

33%, the growth of the automotive business mainly expanded the expansion of the company’s new energy automotive business; the company’s micro-channel business achieved revenue growth.

1.6 billion, down 2 every year.

90%, a sharp decrease from the first half of the year; Yaweike’s business revenue reached 10.

9.3 billion, a decline of 9 per year.


The company’s new energy vehicles have grown rapidly, and its products have gradually evolved from parts to components. According to the company’s annual report, the company has cooperated with Valeo, Mahler, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Volvo, Tesla, GM, Geely,With long-term cooperation orders from BYD, SAIC and other customers, the competitive advantage of thermal management of new energy vehicles is significant.

Industry competition affects overall profitability and strengthens research and development to consolidate its own advantages.

The company’s overall gross profit margin for the past 18 years dropped by 2.

64pct is 28.

59%, of which the gross profit margin of the refrigeration sector fell 3.

32pct up to 32.

56%, the gross profit margin of the automotive business fell 1.

45 cases reached 29.

At 38%, the gross profit margins of microchannel and Yaweiko are 30.

35% and 14.85%, down 4 each year.

30 points and above 2.

62 points.

The company’s R & D expenses reached 18 in 18 years.

37 ppm, R & D expenses4.

03%, a year increase of 0.

62 points, as of 2018, the company has obtained 1667 domestic and foreign patent authorizations, including 765 invention patent authorizations. We judge that the company will continue to take heat pump technology as its core and strengthen its competitive advantages in refrigeration and steam.

The company’s net profit margin reached 11 in 18 years.

93%, a reduction of 0 per year.

97pct, the decrease has narrowed compared to Q3.

Investment advice and profit forecast.

We believe that the company is promoting both domestic and commercial refrigeration at the same time to ensure the steady growth of the main refrigeration industry; new energy vehicle business is full of orders, and the revenue scale continues to expand rapidly; the micro-channel business continues to benefit from the increase in North American penetration, and the future development space is broadYaweiko is expected to continue to reduce costs and increase efficiency through the gradual release of domestic production capacity, and make a positive contribution to profits.

At the same time, the company started the repurchase at the end of 18 to strengthen the return to all shareholders.

We expect the company to achieve zero EPS in 19-21.

67, 0.

78 and 0.

90 yuan, an increase of 10 in ten years.

72%, 16.

20% and 14.


Considering the leading position of the company’s refrigeration business and the high growth of the new energy vehicle business, the company was given 25-30xPE for 19 years, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 16.


10 yuan, maintaining the “primary market” rating.

Risk warning: original volatility, exchange rate fluctuations, terminal demand is less than expected.

China Railway (601390): Q2 order growth rate of 20%, speeding up, benefit policy strengthened and infrastructure rebound soon

China Railway (601390): Q2 order growth rate of 20%, speeding up, benefit policy strengthened and infrastructure rebound soon

This report reads: Q2’s new progress order growth rate has increased significantly by 20%. The company has strengthened its beneficiary 北京桑拿洗浴保健 policy for the domestic iron and steel infrastructure leader and rebounded immediately with infrastructure. The current low growth and underestimated positions are clearly mismatched with the improvement of policy environment and fundamentals.

Event: On July 22, the company disclosed operating data for the first half of the year, with a single-year growth rate of approximately 701.3 billion yuan10.

3%, of which the growth rate of 20 in the second quarter.

4% speeded up significantly and exceeded market expectations.

Comment: Maintain overweight.

The company’s new starting point for Q2 was a single growth rate of 20.

The 4% speed-up, as the leading company of Tiekong Infrastructure, has benefited from the strengthening of the policy. The rebound in infrastructure is expected, and the order growth rate is expected to continue to improve. The optimization of the business structure will promote the improvement of gross profit margins and improve the performance.The fundamentals are obviously mismatched; we maintain that the company’s EPS for 2019-21 is 0.



08 yuan growth rate of 15/13/11%, maintaining a target price of 10.

02 yuan corresponds to November 2019-21.



3 times PE.

Q2 single-year growth rate of 20 in the new millennium.

4% speed up, H2 will continue to improve.

1) The new chronic single H1 has a growth rate of about 7013 yuan.

3%, of which infrastructure construction growth rate of about 5979 trillion13.

5%, the growth rate of the railway in the infrastructure segment is about 1009 trillion13.

4%, highway growth rate of about 894 trillion -4.

6%, municipal and other growth of about 4076 trillion 18.

5% (urban rail 1076 trillion growth rate -2.

3%); 2) Q2 single signing growth rate of 20 in the quarter.

4%, infrastructure growth rate of 23.

1% since the second quarter of 2018; 3) We believe that the speed up of the new signing in the second quarter is due to the company’s strong ability to obtain orders and the strength of urban construction, railways and major municipalities (including housing construction, rail transit, municipal roads and bridges, etc.)Contribute to increase the amount; 4) Considering the number of H2 order growth bases in 2018 (Q3 / Q4 is -6 / 12%), H2 railway and rail traffic over 2 trillion will enter bidding, debt-to-equity swap and perpetual debt assistanceOrder acceptance, we think H2 orders are expected to continue to improve.

The strengthening of beneficiary policies is about to rebound with the infrastructure, and the certainty of performance growth is enhanced.

1) Macro: ① The downward pressure on the H2 economy still exists, and the special debt policy highlights the strengthening of counter-cyclical adjustment; ② H1 gradually issues new local debt bonds2.

1.8 billion left.

9 trillion, a gradual deficit 1.

57 trillion left.

19 trillion, increase quota or one option; Political Bureau meeting or important observation window in late July; ③ The subsequent increase in capital ratio / special debt quota increase and other possible policies follow-up or promulgation, which will help speed up infrastructure construction; 2) Meso:Infrastructure (narrow sense) growth rate in June 4.

1% MoM +0.

1pct has tried to stabilize and rebound. We roughly estimate that the growth rate of infrastructure construction is expected to rise to about 6% by 2019, and it is expected to rise to about 8% in the second half of the year. The company will benefit most from the speed of infrastructure construction because it is the strong leader in domestic rail public infrastructure;Scale: ① The company has sufficient orders in hand (orders in hand 3 at the end of 2019Q1.

03 trillion guarantee multiple 4.

(1x), and the new signing is expected to increase faster than 2018, and the execution of orders in hand will also accelerate; ② Profitability will improve: business structure will be optimized, and the proportion of high gross profit municipalities will increase.

Low gains, underestimates, low positions and a constantly improving policy environment are clearly mismatched with fundamentals.

1) Low growth rate: The company’s growth rate since the beginning of 2019 is -8%, which is far lower than the construction sector (+1.

3%) and CSI 300 (+22.7%); 2) Underestimation: The company’s current dynamic PE is 7.

5 times, PB is only 0.

75 times, and the international leader Wanxi is currently PE (TTM) 18.

8 times / company 8.

Doubled the growth rate of Wanxi’s net profit in 2018 by 8.

6% / 7% of the company; 3) Low positions: The number of funds held by Q2 heavy positions in the company is 22 (5 rings), and the shareholding ratio is 0.

13% (0% QoQ.

01pct) is the lowest in the past 12 years (the lowest is 0 in 2018Q1.


Risk Warning: Better-than-expected economy, scale of infrastructure investment, tighter funding, etc.

Has GEM peaked?

Demystifying historical data: structural market may continue

Has GEM peaked?
Demystifying historical data: structural market may continue

Original title: Has the GEM peaked?

Historical data revealed!

The structural market may continue to experience the impact of the epidemic. After the holiday, the A-share market has rapidly stabilized and rebounded. Among them, the growth sector represented by technology has performed particularly well. The GEM Index has therefore continued to recover the gap caused by the epidemicRefreshed a new high.

  Looking back at the trend of the GEM index, it can be seen that since the rebound of the GEM index at the end of 2018, the increase has been very obvious.

The data shows that since the beginning of 2019, the growth rate of the GEM index has reached 77%, while the SSE index has only 20% during the same period, and the growth rate of the GEM index has clearly surpassed the broader market.

  However, due to the spread of overseas epidemics, the global risk aversion sentiment suddenly heated up, and investor sentiment tended to be cautious. The GEM Index increased today, falling by 4%.

66%, the previous hot technology stocks set off the tide limit, Shennan Circuit, Sanan Optoelectronics, Pengding Holdings and other stocks.

  At the current point in time, given the divergence of capital and growth styles, whether the GEM market can continue is naturally a matter of great concern for investors.

  Profit growth picks up. The GEM Index is more reasonable. From the current estimate of the GEM Index, according to the wind, the current price-earnings ratio (PE) of the GEM Index is 58.

22 times, in the median range of historical estimates, but also close to the dangerous value of 61.

01 times.

However, considering the fourth quarter of 2019, the performance of the GEM Index has picked up significantly, and the current estimate of the GEM Index is reasonable.

  After the bottom line growth rate of the GEM bottomed out in the fourth quarter of 2018, its performance gradually improved.

Affected by factors such as impairment of goodwill, the growth rate of GEM net profit in the fourth quarter of 2018 was -61.

36% in the third quarter of 2019 is 6.


  Since the performance forecast of GEM companies is mandatory, the performance forecast before the end of January can already reflect some performance information.

According to the current performance forecast data of the 2019 annual report, the lower and upper limits of the GEM net profit growth rate are expected to be 49% and 94%, and the median expected earnings growth rate is 72%.

The improvement in GEM profit growth is a preliminary outlook for the strength of the GEM index. In 2020, China Merchants Securities quoted analysts ‘consensus expectations and forecasted the growth rate of the GEM index in 2020. The current analysts for 375 startupsThe board company made a judgment on the expected profit growth rate in 2020, and the 武汉夜生活网 median and average profit growth rates were 32% and 53%, respectively.

  Monita Research believes that from the perspective of the performance forecast of listed companies, the GEM’s gradual profit growth rate in 2019 is expected to continue to improve in the earlier Q3 growth rate, and the performance forecast in 2020 is also very large, which may lead to the current P / ETTMThe readings are falsely high, which does not exclude that the market has begun to price the next year’s performance.

  The growth pattern of the risk-free interest rate downlink is expected to improve performance and pick up, and the GEM is receiving capital attention, which is undoubtedly reasonable.

There is no doubt that affected by the epidemic, market interest rates have fallen and growth style preferences have increased.

  In order to hedge against the impact of the epidemic, it has recently cut the money market operation interest rate and LPR to guide market interest rates down.

On February 17, the MLF operation was announced with a bid interest rate of 3.

15%, 10 basis points lower than the previous time.

On February 20, the LPR was announced in advance, and the one-year price was quoted4.

05%, a decrease of 10bp; quoted price over 5 years4.

75%, down 5BP.

The decline in money market operating interest rates has led to a decline in interest rates in the interbank market. Shibor overnight / weekly interest rates have fallen by 108bp / 30bp after the holiday, significantly lower than the average since 20152.

27% / 2.


In addition, on February 19, the inter-bank pledged repo rate (r007) closed at 2.

17%, 20-day moving average has also been placed at 2.

5% or less.

  The analysis of Zheshang Securities pointed out that the low-interest-rate market environment is conducive to improving the profitability of small and medium-sized market capitalization enterprises, thereby promoting a continuous rise.

With reference to the experience of the SARS epidemic, the strong electronic, communication, and computer performances in the early stage continued to perform well in the outbreak period.The continued decline in market interest rates has also created a hotbed for growth stocks.

  Currently, the signal of the inflection point of interest rates is expected to appear.

The action to initially guide the market interest rate downward is still delayed. This is the basic intervention to continue participating in the growth market.

  Looking forward, Tianfeng Securities predicts that in the current excess liquidity environment at the macro level, it may continue to be maintained at least until the counter-cyclical policies are fully implemented (loans and bonds are issued in large quantities), but the liquidity released in the previous period will expireThe most lenient time may gradually pass, and the index may be replaced by a significant upward trend, but the stocks and themes in the technology sector may continue to be active.

  The continued high market turnover increased the increase in profit margins and the decrease in investors’ required return rates, which jointly promoted the GEM index bull market. The improvement in sentiment is also quite related to the rise in GEM index estimates.The trend depends on whether market sentiment will stabilize.

  GEM turnover rate has exceeded 5% 4 times in history: 1) 2015/3/17?
2015/4/13, during this period of 19 trading days, the turnover rate remained at about 5%, and the GEM KLCI rose by 26%, and the index fluctuated in the following one-month period; 2) 2015/5/11?On 6/4/2015, the GEM turnover rate for the 18 trading days in the range remained at about 5%, and the maximum growth of the GEM KLCI was 39%, after which the index entered the top area; 3) 2015/10/12?
2015/11/30, during the 33 trading days during the period, the GEM turnover rate remained near 5%, and the GEM rose the highest at 35%, and then entered the top area; 4) 2019/2/25?
On March 13, 2019, the turnover rate of the 12 trading days during this period remained at about 5%, and the maximum increase of the index was 20%. Subsequently, the GEM index entered the top area; at present, the GEM index turnover rate has continued for 4The trading day hovered around 5%.

  How will it be interpreted later?

  After the outbreak of the epidemic, market investors ‘risk appetite has increased significantly, leading to the rapid repair of stock indexes. The GEM index has even reached new highs in succession. However, after the end of February, economic data will be released one after another, and the impact of the epidemic on the economy will gradually appear.There are some differences on the market outlook.

  China Merchants Securities said that at present, market liquidity is still relatively large, and money market interest rates remain loose, but during the Spring Festival, a large amount of data may cause some disturbance to liquidity.

In terms of market risk appetite, investor sentiment is relatively high. Whether it is a market trend or a structure, it reflects a significant increase in investor sentiment.

Considering the impact of the epidemic, the weakening of market demand, the marginal decline of industrial added value, the pressure on corporate profits in the first quarter, and after the resumption of postponed work, the possible decline in earnings data may suggest that investors maintain neutral positions on equity assets.

  Monita Research believes that without a shift in the market value of risk, even if the risk-free interest rate is difficult to continue to decline according to the exchange rate rating, the earnings expectations of the ChiNext index can still support the increase in index growth.

For the GEM Index as a whole, there are more structural opportunities in the future.

  The Monita study believes that the growth of the GEM market continues to be structured, mainly due to the following factors: First, in 2013, the growth of multiple sub-sectors in the GEM market took turns, and currently more opportunities for sub-sectors are waitingDig.

  Second, some industries have not fully reflected their 2020 earnings expectations.

For example, the profit forecast of the cultural media industry has increased rapidly since February. The current growth rate is expected to have reached 18 times, but PEG is only 1.

07 (lower than other sub-sectors) may be due to the impact of the epidemic on the existence of the film and television industry in the first quarter, and market sentiment severely intervened.

  Third, the refinancing New Deal will boost the profitability of GEM stocks in a series.

Considering that it usually takes 6-7 months for a listed company’s M & A and restructuring to take place from the board of directors’ plan to completion, it is expected that the overall improvement in the performance of GEM stocks by the refinancing new policy is also expected to be achieved by 2020.

  Fourth, since the issuance of technology ETF funds this year, the trading activity has significantly increased. With reference to the experience of the US market, the emergence and development of ETFs will increase the correlation between individual stocks. It is expected that the degree of differentiation of growth stocks will not be at an extreme for a long time.Extreme state.

  Zhongyuan Securities said that the current GEM market is mainly due to the counter-cyclical policy force and favorable direction. After the refinancing new regulations have been implemented, the valuation of small and medium-sized companies has risen. The growth of GEM profits and the changes in the economic structure have contributed to the market change structureThe sexual change reflects the switching of China’s “new” and “old” core assets, alternating short-term event drivers, and other factors, amplifying the breadth and depth of structural market influence.

As more funds continue to flow in and high-quality growth stocks are the buying target, the transformation of the economic structure and the current structural market changes continue to evolve.

Even on the way, due to the estimated periodical repair in place and the rise in risk aversion, the short-term adjustment will not change the basic nature of the market.

Shi Dashenghua (603026): Poland invests in lithium battery solvent project optimistic about the company’s long-term development

Shi Dashenghua (603026): Poland invests in lithium battery solvent project optimistic about the company’s long-term development
Event: The company announced that it plans to establish a joint venture with Poland PCCRotika, and plans to invest in the first phase1.$ 7 trillion to build a 2 budget / year ethylene carbonate project. Expand the layout of the European market and cooperate to solve the problem of supporting raw materials.The company takes a 51% stake in PCC Shingwha Sp, a joint venture with PCC Rokita in Poland.z.o.o.The company plans to develop, construct and operate a lithium ion battery electrolyte material project, and plans to invest in the first phase1.70,000 yuan for the construction of the initial / annual ethylene carbonate (EC) product project in Nizhny Berge, Lower Silesia, Poland, with an estimated construction period of 2 years.EC is one of the important bicarbonate solvents for lithium batteries, with an average proportion of 20% -30% in toluene solvents. Its main raw materials are propylene oxide and carbon dioxide. PCC Rokita Company produces epoxy resins in XiebergeFormaldehyde can be used as a raw material for ethylene carbonate solution.At the same time, the company can produce DMC, DEC and EMC from EC for raw materials in the future, and provide customers with solvent integration services. Bind downstream core customers and work together to explore the European market.The future development prospects of the new energy vehicle industry in Europe are broad, and the EU countries have successively clarified the timetables for banning the sale of fuel vehicles. Germany, the United Kingdom, 2030 and 2040 respectively banned the sale of fuel vehicles.LG Chem invests in Europe’s largest power battery plant in Wroclaw, Poland, with an annual production capacity of 70 GWh by 2021Lithium-ion battery material project with 40,000 tons, NMP 5,000 tons, and conductive paste 5,000 苏州夜网论坛 tons.Niederbrzeg and Wroc?aw are in the Lower Silesian Province of Poland, 40 kilometers apart. The company’s Polish EC project can provide customers with nearby supplies and expand the surrounding market, improve service quality, reduce logistics costs, and increase company profits.Level. The company is the leader of domestic oxidant and solvent, and has the advantages of the whole industry chain.The company has the right capacity of dimethyl carbonate (DMC) 10.5 per year, of which CFC production capacity can reach 7.5 Lowest price / year. At present, the quotations of industrial-grade dimethyl carbonate manufacturers in Shandong are mostly 6500-6800 yuan / ton, which is 500-1000 yuan / ton higher than the same period last year.The spread DMC + PG-PO-MT is about 5200 yuan / ton, and the industry’s average gross profit level is 1500-2000 yuan / ton.In the long run, domestic water productivity will still maintain a high annual growth rate of 30% to 40%. In the short term, Tiantianhua Zhonglan New Materials, Ganning New Materials and Henan Shengtong Juyuan will jointly put into production 30 PCs in the near future.The annual increase in demand growth is more than 10 seconds, and there is almost no new capacity in the DMC industry within 1-2 years. We expect that the domestic supply and demand gap for dimethyl carbonate will further increase in the future, and product prices are still increasing the growth channel. Profit forecast and rating.We expect EPS to be 1 in 2018-2020.38 yuan, 1.77 yuan and 2.16 yuan, corresponding to PE is 15 times, 12 times and 9 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” level. Risk reminders: the risk of titanium dioxide price fluctuations, the risk of raw material price fluctuations, and environmental protection policy risks.

Shanghai Jahwa (600315): The core brand continued to focus on the recovery in the third quarter and the future performance of new single products

Shanghai Jahwa (600315): The core brand continued to focus on the recovery in the third quarter and the future performance of new single products

1.Event summary In the first three quarters of 2019, the company achieved operating income of 57.

35 ppm, a five-year increase of 5.

81%; realized attributable net profit 5.

40 ppm, an increase of 19 in ten years.

09%; realized non-net profit deduction attributable to the parent company3.

80 ppm, a ten-year increase2.


Net operating cash flow was 7.

2.5 billion, an increase of 1 over the previous year.


2.Our analysis and judgment (1) The scale of the first three quarters increased3.

150,000 yuan, deduct non-performance increased by 0.

7,000 yuan The company achieved operating income of 57 in the first three quarters of 2019.

3.5 billion, an increase of 3 over the same period last year.

1.5 billion; Q1 / Q2 / Q3 companies achieved operating income of 19 respectively.



13 ppm, corresponding to a revenue increase of 0.



580,000 yuan, it is estimated that the growth in the second quarter is even more leading.

From the perspective of the revenue of major products, beauty skin care / personal care / home care achieved revenue in the third quarter5.



65 ppm, the corresponding contribution revenue increase is 0.



1.4 billion, YOY1 compared with the same period last year.

33% / 3.

10% / 27.

11%; the revenue of the three main products in the second quarter changed by 0.

63 / -1.

77 / -0.

42 trillion, a month-on-month change of 13.

00% /-12.

92% /-39.


Among them, personal care products contributed the main revenue (single quarter accounted for 65.97%), and promoted revenue growth (contributing to a single quarter revenue increase of 63.

03%); however, the personal care and beauty skin care products’ pre-determined proportions exceeded the replaced range, and they were 0 compared with the same period of the previous year.


58 single, corresponding to the increase in shared contributions in the home care category.

Judging from the sales unit price, the average cost of beauty skin care / personal care / home care in the third quarter increased by 0 compared with the same period last year.

67% / 1.

37% / 1.

15%, the growth rate increased by 9.

83 / -11.


59 uniforms.

However, according to previous years’ experience, the unit price of commodities in the third quarter will decline compared with the second quarter. The average replacement of the three main products in 2019Q3 will decrease by 47 compared with that in 2019Q2.

99% / 8.

75% / 18.

71%, a decrease of 8.



92 units.

In the first three quarters, the company realized a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of 5.

400,000 yuan, an increase of 0 over the same period last year.

8.7 billion; Q1 / Q2 / Q3 companies achieved net profit attributable to their mothers2.



96 ppm, corresponding to a net profit increase of 0.


44 / -0.

4 billion.

In the first three quarters, the net profit after deducting non-return to mothers reached 3.

80 ppm, an increase of 0 in ten years.

7.0 billion, of which Q1 / Q2 / Q3 companies realized net profit after deduction of non-return to their mothers1.



19 ppm, corresponding to a net profit increase of 0 after deduction.


12 / -0.

1.5 billion.

Non-recurring gains and losses recognized in the first three quarters1.

60 ppm mainly includes 1 from disposal of non-current assets.

38 ppm, government subsidy 0.
150,000 yuan and 0.
Changes in fair value and investment income of USD 3.3 billion; including changes in fair value and investment income in the third quarter) Total is -2776.

790,000 yuan (Q1 / Q2 are 7055 respectively.

39 / -1044.

720,000 yuan), further appeared thickness.

(2) Comprehensive gross profit margin decreased by 1.

16pct, the cost rate is reduced by 0 during the period.

23pct’s consolidated gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2019 was 61.

63%, a decrease of 1 compared with the same period last year.

The 16 units are mainly affected by the adjustment of product structure and the cost of depreciation and thickening of the new plant.

The company’s operating costs in the third quarter were 7.

08,000 yuan, a decrease of 1 over the same period last year.

61%; operating costs for the first three quarters totaled 22.

One billion yuan, rising every year.

13%, the growth rate is slower than the expansion of revenue scale.

In the raw materials required by the company for production, the prices of soap granules (-2%), surfactants (-9%) and packaging materials (carton -10%, glass -1%) all have different degrees of substitution. Only solvents (+ 1%) and nutritional and pharmaceutical additive prices rose slightly.

The company’s net sales margin for the first three quarters of 2019 was 9.

42%, up by 1 each year.

05 totals; period expenses 56.

17%, an estimated decrease of 0 in the previous year.

23 units.

The sales / management (including R & D) / financial expense ratios are 42.

13% / 13.

36% / 0.

69%, a change of +0 from the same period last year.

28 / -0.

22 / -0.

28 units; sales expenses increased by 1 compared with the first three quarters of last year.

480,000 yuan (6 compared with the same period last year).


(3) Brand matrix layout pattern, omni-channel marketing products to support brand development. Shanghai Jahwa takes consumer trends in the new retail era as its core and continuously optimizes its brand layout. Among them, Herborist, Tang Meixing, and Shuangmei follow the high-end trend.With continued youthfulness, Gao Fu, Qi Chu, Yu Ze, and Jia An meet the needs of segmentation, and the overall brand matrix is gradually enriched and improved.

Through global marketing, the popularity of Liushen, Meijiajing, Gough, Qichu and other brands has increased significantly.

Differentiated product positioning, slightly marketing methods, and constantly introducing new research and development capabilities such as Shanghai Jahwa’s various brands firmly occupy the leading position.

The initial company plans that in 2019, the brand will work around “digital empowerment, quality marketing”, which is embodied in positioning “quasi”, “hot” products, “excellent” marketing, and “exclusive” channels.

In terms of channel construction, Shanghai Jahwa ‘s main strategy is omni-channel, full coverage, integration of online and offline, and matching development of channels and brands; the current eight major channels include: offline distributor sales,Directly operated KA, mother and baby, cosmetics specialty stores, department stores, overseas; online e-commerce, special channels; each channel matches different brand and category positioning.

In addition, the company is focusing on creating explosive products. Taking Double Eleven this year as an example, as of October 24th, at 5 pm, combined with the previous Weibo advertising, beauty blogger Li Jiaqi with product recommendations and other marketing methods, Herborist official flagship storeThe main promotion of pre-oxide 298 yuan lyophilized powder mask has been booked for 11,777 copies, Taiji Sun and Moon Essence for 299 yuan is ordered for 19393 copies, and 99 yuan for new Qibai Dabai mud is scheduled for 16,767 copies. The total of these three can contribute about 1096.

800,000 yuan.

(IV) R & D promotion helps to improve product quality, new factory supports future capacity and supply growth. At present, the company has reached technological R & D cooperation with Shanghai Academy of Preventive Medicine, Jiangnan University, Zhejiang University, etc., and market demand data, combined with R & D of professional institutionsStrength constitutes the basis for the upgrading and upgrading of Shanghai Jahwa’s product line.

In addition, the company’s separation of raw materials, formulation development, product production and storage and transportation to ensure product safety to the greatest extent.

The new factory Qingpu Leapfrog Factory, which is responsible for the company’s main production force, has been put into use since June 2018. The designed production capacity is 600 million pieces / year, which is five times the original central plant.
It is expected that all parts of the plant will be put into operation one after another, and the maximum production capacity will continue to increase.
The construction and commissioning of the new plant not only met the company’s own development needs and the needs of the optimization of the production layout of the supply chain, but also the overall production capacity, supply guarantee capabilities and intelligent manufacturing levels of the plant were fully improved after the project was put into operation.

Advanced, intelligent factories ensure that the company can continue to provide consumers with high-quality products.

3.Investment suggestion: The company steadily promotes the effective landing of its strategy. In terms of brand promotion, the company focuses its resources on building a high-quality brand in an all-round way, and actively promotes the high-end, younger, 杭州桑拿 and segmented process of the brand. Each of the fist brands in the brand matrix has influence and market shareBoth have certain advantages.

In terms of channel innovation, the company’s various channels are actively deployed in accordance with brand planning, deeply cultivating traditional offline channels, developing new online channels, and developing collaboratively.

In terms of advancement of research and development, the company continuously increases research and development investment, improves research and development efficiency, and guarantees product quality and safety while innovating and applying new technologies.

In terms of supply guarantee, the company put the new plant into operation as planned, achieving a seamless seamless connection between the new and old plants, and continuous improvement of non-stop operations, which significantly improved performance.

Therefore, we predict that the company will achieve revenue of 79 in 2019/2020/2021.



2.7 billion, net profit 6.



11 trillion; corresponding to PS2.



48 times, corresponding to PE37 / 31/26 times, the previous “cautious recommendation level”.

4.Risks indicate that the development of the daily chemical industry is less than expected; the risk of intensifying market competition and decreasing the concentration of the industry;

The first mention of improving the quality of listed companies Politburo meeting revealed heavy monitoring signals

The first mention of “improving the quality of listed companies” Politburo meeting revealed heavy monitoring signals
Original title: Today ‘s perspective: The first mention of the “Improve the Quality of Listed Companies” Politburo meeting revealed what signals are peaceful. On July 30th, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze the current economic prospects, and to deploy and focus on future economic work.Adjustment.Therefore, the conference’s “sentences and sentences” became the focus of market attention.The author noticed that “improving the quality of listed companies” was proposed for the first time in this Politburo meeting. The short 8 words revealed the central government’s work requirements for the capital market, which also means that improving the quality of listed companies will become the future securities market supervision.Top priority and primary goal.  Since the beginning of this year, senior officials of the China Securities Regulatory Commission have mentioned the period of “improving the quality of listed companies” in public speeches.At the first press conference of the State Council Office where the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission was fully fulfilled, he proposed that the capital market is the “barometer” of the real economy. This “barometer” function is mainly reflected by listed companies, thereby improvingThe quality of listed companies is of paramount importance.  On May 11, at the 2019 annual meeting of the China Association of Listed Companies, Yi Huiman made a speech entitled “Focus on Improving the Quality of Listed Companies, Consolidating Vigor, and the Foundation of Property Right Capital Market”.He said that improving the quality of listed companies is an inherent requirement of the company’s own development and the cornerstone of sustainable development of the capital market.Continuously improve the quality of listed companies and promote the healthy development of the capital market with key institutional innovations.  The capital market is the link between the entity and capital, and between the financing party and the investor. The quality of listed companies is the pillar and cornerstone that supports this market. It is the micro foundation for promoting a virtuous cycle of finance and the real economy.Without a good listed company, there can be no good capital market.To create a standardized, transparent, open, energetic, and recognized capital market initially means that there are many restructured listed companies.Today, improving the quality of listed companies has been pointed out by the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, marking that it has become part of the central government’s focus on deployment.It is conceivable that in the near future, the related work will present an accelerated development on the basis that the essence has been started.  The author believes that improving the quality of listed companies can be improved from at least three aspects.  First of all, prevent illness from the mouth and improve the quality of listed companies from the source.  Listed companies are the source of the development of the capital market. To activate the market, we must not only give the market dating of the source from the source, but also “import” the market with higher requirements.  Initially, the Securities and Futures Commission has been strictly restricting the admission of listed companies to prevent IPOs from “sickness from the mouth” at the source.For example, strict implementation of the entire process of IPO 北京夜网 supervision, through the organic cooperation of feedback, inspection, preliminary examination, issuance and other audit processes and audit mechanisms to effectively prevent the emergence of problems and “illness declaration” measures, through on-site inspection and daily supervisionThe linkage will further promote the standardized operation of the first-line application companies, improve the quality of information disclosure, and create a good market ecology.  In particular, through the stable start of the science and technology innovation board and the pilot registration system, it truly overcomes the securities issuance registration system with information disclosure as its core, improves the efficiency and efficiency of review work, enhances the inclusiveness of the issuance and listing standards, and the predictability of 无锡夜网 policies, forming a predictableCopy scalable institutional innovation.  It is believed that through the system innovation of the science and technology innovation board, the listing of enterprises will not only depend on ownership, size, industry, but on the strengths and weaknesses, and will truly achieve the best among the best and improve the quality of listed companies from the source.  In essence, deepen the reform of stocks and give play to the role of the market’s “invisible hand”.  While maintaining a good entry and dating high-quality companies, in the future, we will further expand wide exports, categorize policies, and stabilize and resolve stock risks, so that there is room for the quality of stock companies to increase.  Give full play to the role of the “invisible hand” of the market, improve the mechanisms of mergers and acquisitions, reorganization, bankruptcy and reorganization, support the injection of high-quality assets into listed companies, and inject “fresh blood” for listed companies to improve their quality and efficiency.  Thirdly, smooth the export and create an ecological environment for the capital market with in and out.  While optimizing the increase and deepening the stock, the capital market will realize various forms of delisting channels.Firms that have severely disrupted market order and touched delisting standards will resolutely withdraw from the market, and as soon as they exit, promote the timely clearing of “zombie companies” and “shell companies”.  Data show that in the first half of this year, a total of 5 companies in the A-share market terminated listing. This number is equivalent to the number of gradually delisting in 2017 and 2018. At the same time, there are more ways to delist and there are “financial delistings”.”Illegal refund”, “par value refund”, “active refund” and so on.In addition, since the beginning of this year, the number of companies suspended in the A-share market has reached a record high, reaching 10.The delisting channel of the capital market has become more and more smooth, the delisting rate has gradually increased, and an ecological environment of a market that has entered and exited has gradually formed.