Northbound funds this week to support 23 billion A-shares
Source: Wind News. The first trading day in November ushered in a good start. A shares opened lower and moved higher on November 1. The apparent net inflow of funds to the north helped the three indexes to grow collectively.
At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.
99%, Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.
73%, GEM Index rose 0.
(Picture from: Wind financial terminal APP) Kitakami funds actively bought, this week’s net inflow of 23 billion, 7 days to increase positions.
Specifically, this Friday, the net inflow of northbound funds was 74.
500 million yuan, of which the net inflow of Shanghai Stock Connect was 32.
The net inflow of Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 7.8 billion yuan.
National Gold Securities analysts Li Lifeng, Wei Xue, and Ai Xiongfeng stated in the research report that the opening up to the outside world will continue to advance and further diversify international indices. Mutual transfer will be the general trend and become an important force supporting the bottom of the market.
The research report stated that since the implementation of the QFII system in 2002, the QFII quota has increased from the initial USD 4 billion to USD 300 billion in early 2019.
As MSCI, FTSE Russell, S & P Dow Jones and other international mainstream indexes have steadily increased their share weights, foreign investors’ investment needs in the sovereign financial market have increased accordingly.
With the further opening of the A-share market, coupled with events such as the division of A-shares into MSCI, foreign exchange has accelerated inflows into A-shares in the past two years. In 2017 and 2018, China Securities Exchange had net inflows of 1997 billion and 294.2 billion, respectively; until October 30On this day, the net inflow of China Stock Connect this year was 210.9 billion, and foreign countries have gradually net inflows of about 852.7 billion through China Stock Connect.
What does Kitakami Capital buy?
Wind data shows that as of now, the number of A shares held by Beijing Capital is 2007, and the value of the stock market has reached 1.
22 trillion, a record high, an increase of 608 over the end of the third quarter.
700 million or 5.
Among them, the Shanghai stock market value exceeded 700 billion yuan, reaching 7398.
9.5 billion yuan, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange held a stock market value of 2503.
8.6 billion yuan, the small and medium-sized board, the ChiNext holding the stock market value rose to 1531.
1.4 billion, 777失败:重查.
6.9 billion yuan.
In terms of wind power secondary industry configuration, the food and beverage industry still replaces the top capital allocation list.
The top 4 industries with the highest stock market value held by Beishang Capital are food and beverages, durable consumer goods and clothing, banks and pharmaceuticals, and the market value of their positions exceeds 100 billion yuan.
From the perspective of the change in the proportion of positions, last weekend, three major industries, such as durable consumer goods and clothing, food and beverage and tobacco, pharmaceutical biotechnology and life sciences, significantly increased their positions, and the proportion of increase in positions was 0.
At the same time, this week, the banking, real estate, capital goods, technical hardware and equipment, and transportation industries suffered reductions, and the proportion of reductions exceeded 0.
From the perspective of specific stocks, a total of 671 stocks this week received an increase in capital from the north.
Among them, Dashenlin, Haixing Power, Weir Shares, Xusheng Shares, Sofia, Senter Shares, Vantage Shares, China Inspection Group and other 8 stocks have increased their holdings by more than 2%, and another 35 stocks have increased their holdingsAbove 1%.
In terms of reductions, a total of 610 stocks suffered reductions from Kitakami funds this week.
Among them, the proportion of positions held by Gujia Household fell by 14.
17 single tops; Yuetai shares, Yutong Bus, Quanzhi Technology all reduced their shareholdings by more than 2%. In addition, 22 banks including Hangzhou Bank, Aonong Biotechnology, AVIC Shenfei, and Huafa have reduced their shareholdings by more than 1%.
What does Kitakami Capital mean for A shares?
GF Securities analysis said that all foreign countries mainly include Beijing Capital and QFII / RQFII.As of 19Q3, all foreign holdings accounted for about two-thirds of the funds in the North, and QFII / RQFII accounted for about one-third.
According to the research report of Guangfa Securities, according to the expanded data, the total foreign shareholding scale at the end of the third quarter of this year was one.
77 trillion yuan, 66% of which is the capital of Beijing, 34% of which is QFII / RQFII. The capital of Beijing’s capital in foreign investment has further expanded.
Guosheng Securities Research reported that the funds from the north have reshaped the structure of stock investors, and foreign voices have continued to increase.
With the accelerated inflow of foreign countries, the proportion of foreign exchange in the A-share investor structure has increased rapidly.
Among the current institutional investors, from the perspective of the proportion of the market capitalization held in circulation, the public offering ratio is the highest.
52%; followed by insurance, accounting for 3.
79%; third is foreign, accounting for 3.
Consistent with the accelerated inflow of foreign exchange in the past two years, the foreign share has risen rapidly since 2016, and the gap with public offerings and insurance has narrowed rapidly.
In the future, it is expected that the proportion of foreign substitution will further increase.
In November, MSCI implemented the third step of the expansion of A-shares. The incremental foreign exchange funds will then flow into the A-share market. In the short term, market sentiment will improve.
From the industry perspective, it is expected that foreign incremental injection of “medicine, banking, food and beverage, non-bank, electronics” and other industries will expand in November. The above sectors are worthy of attention.
In the medium and long term, A-shares will gradually become internationalized and absorbed into the general trend. The right to speak will gradually increase, which will help support the bottom of the market. At the same time, the degree of influence on the market will further increase.
In addition to bringing incremental funds, improving the structure of A-share investors and boosting market sentiment, Kitakami Capital also promoted A-share market governance from the side.
According to MSCI, the number of A-share suspensions has dropped significantly after exceeding the company’s index.
Foreign countries continue to flow into A shares. At present, the three major international indexes are actively expanding A shares.
On November 8, MSCI will release a list of additions and deletions to the semi-annual index for November 2019. The specific index investment adjustments will be implemented on November 26 and will take effect on the 27th.
Theoretically, this expansion may bring about $ 19.5 billion in active incremental funds, equivalent to 1372.
3.9 billion yuan.
China National Securities Research reported that A shares were separated from the MSCI special report. In November, due to the division of mid-cap stocks, the scale of passive incremental funds brought by this time will be the highest ever, which is expected to be 49.3 billion yuan. Large-cap stocks and mid-cap stocksPassive incremental funds were RMB 28.1 billion and RMB 21.2 billion, more than the past four times.
In November, 175 mid-cap stocks will usher in the first division, and the mid-cap will be equal to 15.
41%, mainly in the pharmaceutical, electronics, computer and other industries.
MSCI officials said that since A shares were gradually divided by the three main MSCI indexes, namely, the MSCI Emerging Market Index, MSCI National Index and MSCI China Index, the number of stock accounts that increased trading of A shares increased by 5,600, and the allocation of funds to the north was about 84 billionUSD A shares portfolio.
On October 10, MSCI announced that from November 2019, the qualified science and technology board securities will be classified as the MSCI Global Investable Market Index (GIMI).
Moving A shares beyond the existing index system, FTSE Russell actively followed up.
According to the FTSE Russell plan’s A-share replacement related index plan announced in September 2018, it shows that in June 2019, A-shares replaced the FTSE Russell Index for the first time with a 5% replacement factor; in September 2019, the A-share replacement factor was changed from 5% To 15%; in March 2020, the stock dividend factor will rise from 15% to 25%.
After the completion of the first phase, the weight of A shares in the FTSE Russell Global Stock Index and Emerging Markets Index will be raised to 0, respectively.
57% and 5.
According to official FTSE Russell data, funds tracking the FTSE Russell Global Stock Index System are approximately one.
At USD 7 trillion, the size of passive “linked tracking” index funds accounts for about 80% -85%, and active “reference tracking” index funds account for 15% -20%.
The S & P Dow Jones Indices began consulting the market on the issue of A-share splits as early as 2013.
In December 2018, the S & P Dow Jones Indices announced the results of the classification of the Chinese stock market, announcing that it would become an international index related to the A-share split.
On September 23, 2019, the S & P Dow Jones Indices officially replaced A shares.
Michael Orzano, senior director of the S & P Dow Jones Global Equity Index, said that after the formal division of A shares, it will consider increasing the proportion of A shares at an appropriate time.
Guosheng Securities research report shows that foreign admission is still in its infancy.
From the perspective of space, the current foreign market share in the domestic market is only about 3%, which is far lower than the 15% market share in Japan and South Korea. A shares are still in the low replacement market in the global market, and the proportion of domestic and foreign investment will continue.rise.
At the end of November, the third expansion of MSCI this year will attract about 200 billion US dollars of incremental funds to enter the market. The long-term trend of foreign value-added rights is difficult to change.
Institutions: November’s warmer market analyst Zhang Qiyao of Guosheng Securities and Zhang Junxiao reported that why the home appliance industry has become the first choice for foreign warehouses in the near future? Estimated cost + completion boom is improving, and foreign appliances are the first choice in the current stage of home appliances.
The estimated level of the home appliance industry has been relatively low. As of October 31, the PE level of the home appliance industry was about 16 times and the PB level was about 3.
Doubled, the business climate of the completed real estate industry improved, and its ROE level and performance growth rate have maintained significant advantages, and the estimated value has gradually become prominent.
Compared with food and beverage and pharmaceutical biotechnology, the estimated advantages of the home appliance industry are prominent, and it is still expected to obtain significant value-added in the future.
Zhang Yulong, an analyst at CITIC Construction Investment, said that in addition to A shares, MSCI is the reason for growth, but it is not the primary reason.
Before the Spring Festival in January 2020, the high level of CPI was the main line of the market, and the downward trend of interest rates was still in the process of interruption.
The judgment of maintaining market ups and downs is still mainly in the direction of underestimation and excellent performance in the short term, but it is recommended to move from banks to higher value industries such as home appliances, construction, and real estate.
Long-term is still a two-wheel drive of technology + consumption.
Always under the background of financial supply-side reform, the allocation value of securities firms, especially leading securities firms.
Anson Securities is cautiously optimistic about the market outlook, and believes that the market risk appetite in November is still trending downward, and the profit appeal is being replaced.
We still hold optimistic expectations on the medium-to-long-term economic new and old kinetic energy conversion trend and liquidity status. The medium- and long-term trend of the A-share market has not reversed, but it is reasonable to usher in a certain period of shock adjustment.
It is considered that at this stage, positions need to be controlled, waiting for the timing, and considering the characteristics of the expected downlink of risk, in addition to a high boom, tactically increase the focus on underestimation and supplement the upswing sector.
Huatai Securities pointed out that in terms of equity, the Fed ‘s interest rate cuts have increased the scope for adjustment of the RMB policy, and a window for foreign exchange transactions will also appear in the fourth quarter. In addition, corporate profits will also improve, which should not be considered negative overall.
No negative in the fourth quarter is positive.
But even if there is not much room for growth, it is relatively consistent that the fourth quarter is still an oscillating market.
Looking at the industry, in addition to TMT, innovative medicine and other industries, the banking, infrastructure, home appliances, cosmetics and other industries have noticeably increased attention.
Dongguan Securities analyst Fei Xiaoping and Chen Xiyang said that overall, the external environment is stable, the performance of listed companies has steadily increased, and domestic growth is expected to increase steadily, and the capital market will also usher in mid-to-long-term funds entering the market and northward fundsThe continued evolution of the tilt has resulted in the overall market’s capital remains active. After the shock and consolidation in September and October, the technical side has stabilized and the market confidence has been restored. It is expected that a stable rebound will be ushered in November.
The core fluctuation range is 2900-3100 points.
(This article is synthesized from the announcements of companies such as MSCI, research reports of securities companies, etc.)