Demystifying historical data: structural market may continue
Has GEM peaked?
Demystifying historical data: structural market may continue
Original title: Has the GEM peaked?
Historical data revealed!
The structural market may continue to experience the impact of the epidemic. After the holiday, the A-share market has rapidly stabilized and rebounded. Among them, the growth sector represented by technology has performed particularly well. The GEM Index has therefore continued to recover the gap caused by the epidemicRefreshed a new high.
Looking back at the trend of the GEM index, it can be seen that since the rebound of the GEM index at the end of 2018, the increase has been very obvious.
The data shows that since the beginning of 2019, the growth rate of the GEM index has reached 77%, while the SSE index has only 20% during the same period, and the growth rate of the GEM index has clearly surpassed the broader market.
However, due to the spread of overseas epidemics, the global risk aversion sentiment suddenly heated up, and investor sentiment tended to be cautious. The GEM Index increased today, falling by 4%.
66%, the previous hot technology stocks set off the tide limit, Shennan Circuit, Sanan Optoelectronics, Pengding Holdings and other stocks.
At the current point in time, given the divergence of capital and growth styles, whether the GEM market can continue is naturally a matter of great concern for investors.
Profit growth picks up. The GEM Index is more reasonable. From the current estimate of the GEM Index, according to the wind, the current price-earnings ratio (PE) of the GEM Index is 58.
22 times, in the median range of historical estimates, but also close to the dangerous value of 61.
However, considering the fourth quarter of 2019, the performance of the GEM Index has picked up significantly, and the current estimate of the GEM Index is reasonable.
After the bottom line growth rate of the GEM bottomed out in the fourth quarter of 2018, its performance gradually improved.
Affected by factors such as impairment of goodwill, the growth rate of GEM net profit in the fourth quarter of 2018 was -61.
36% in the third quarter of 2019 is 6.
Since the performance forecast of GEM companies is mandatory, the performance forecast before the end of January can already reflect some performance information.
According to the current performance forecast data of the 2019 annual report, the lower and upper limits of the GEM net profit growth rate are expected to be 49% and 94%, and the median expected earnings growth rate is 72%.
The improvement in GEM profit growth is a preliminary outlook for the strength of the GEM index. In 2020, China Merchants Securities quoted analysts ‘consensus expectations and forecasted the growth rate of the GEM index in 2020. The current analysts for 375 startupsThe board company made a judgment on the expected profit growth rate in 2020, and the 武汉夜生活网 median and average profit growth rates were 32% and 53%, respectively.
Monita Research believes that from the perspective of the performance forecast of listed companies, the GEM’s gradual profit growth rate in 2019 is expected to continue to improve in the earlier Q3 growth rate, and the performance forecast in 2020 is also very large, which may lead to the current P / ETTMThe readings are falsely high, which does not exclude that the market has begun to price the next year’s performance.
The growth pattern of the risk-free interest rate downlink is expected to improve performance and pick up, and the GEM is receiving capital attention, which is undoubtedly reasonable.
There is no doubt that affected by the epidemic, market interest rates have fallen and growth style preferences have increased.
In order to hedge against the impact of the epidemic, it has recently cut the money market operation interest rate and LPR to guide market interest rates down.
On February 17, the MLF operation was announced with a bid interest rate of 3.
15%, 10 basis points lower than the previous time.
On February 20, the LPR was announced in advance, and the one-year price was quoted4.
05%, a decrease of 10bp; quoted price over 5 years4.
75%, down 5BP.
The decline in money market operating interest rates has led to a decline in interest rates in the interbank market. Shibor overnight / weekly interest rates have fallen by 108bp / 30bp after the holiday, significantly lower than the average since 20152.
27% / 2.
In addition, on February 19, the inter-bank pledged repo rate (r007) closed at 2.
17%, 20-day moving average has also been placed at 2.
5% or less.
The analysis of Zheshang Securities pointed out that the low-interest-rate market environment is conducive to improving the profitability of small and medium-sized market capitalization enterprises, thereby promoting a continuous rise.
With reference to the experience of the SARS epidemic, the strong electronic, communication, and computer performances in the early stage continued to perform well in the outbreak period.The continued decline in market interest rates has also created a hotbed for growth stocks.
Currently, the signal of the inflection point of interest rates is expected to appear.
The action to initially guide the market interest rate downward is still delayed. This is the basic intervention to continue participating in the growth market.
Looking forward, Tianfeng Securities predicts that in the current excess liquidity environment at the macro level, it may continue to be maintained at least until the counter-cyclical policies are fully implemented (loans and bonds are issued in large quantities), but the liquidity released in the previous period will expireThe most lenient time may gradually pass, and the index may be replaced by a significant upward trend, but the stocks and themes in the technology sector may continue to be active.
The continued high market turnover increased the increase in profit margins and the decrease in investors’ required return rates, which jointly promoted the GEM index bull market. The improvement in sentiment is also quite related to the rise in GEM index estimates.The trend depends on whether market sentiment will stabilize.
GEM turnover rate has exceeded 5% 4 times in history: 1) 2015/3/17?
2015/4/13, during this period of 19 trading days, the turnover rate remained at about 5%, and the GEM KLCI rose by 26%, and the index fluctuated in the following one-month period; 2) 2015/5/11?On 6/4/2015, the GEM turnover rate for the 18 trading days in the range remained at about 5%, and the maximum growth of the GEM KLCI was 39%, after which the index entered the top area; 3) 2015/10/12?
2015/11/30, during the 33 trading days during the period, the GEM turnover rate remained near 5%, and the GEM rose the highest at 35%, and then entered the top area; 4) 2019/2/25?
On March 13, 2019, the turnover rate of the 12 trading days during this period remained at about 5%, and the maximum increase of the index was 20%. Subsequently, the GEM index entered the top area; at present, the GEM index turnover rate has continued for 4The trading day hovered around 5%.
How will it be interpreted later?
After the outbreak of the epidemic, market investors ‘risk appetite has increased significantly, leading to the rapid repair of stock indexes. The GEM index has even reached new highs in succession. However, after the end of February, economic data will be released one after another, and the impact of the epidemic on the economy will gradually appear.There are some differences on the market outlook.
China Merchants Securities said that at present, market liquidity is still relatively large, and money market interest rates remain loose, but during the Spring Festival, a large amount of data may cause some disturbance to liquidity.
In terms of market risk appetite, investor sentiment is relatively high. Whether it is a market trend or a structure, it reflects a significant increase in investor sentiment.
Considering the impact of the epidemic, the weakening of market demand, the marginal decline of industrial added value, the pressure on corporate profits in the first quarter, and after the resumption of postponed work, the possible decline in earnings data may suggest that investors maintain neutral positions on equity assets.
Monita Research believes that without a shift in the market value of risk, even if the risk-free interest rate is difficult to continue to decline according to the exchange rate rating, the earnings expectations of the ChiNext index can still support the increase in index growth.
For the GEM Index as a whole, there are more structural opportunities in the future.
The Monita study believes that the growth of the GEM market continues to be structured, mainly due to the following factors: First, in 2013, the growth of multiple sub-sectors in the GEM market took turns, and currently more opportunities for sub-sectors are waitingDig.
Second, some industries have not fully reflected their 2020 earnings expectations.
For example, the profit forecast of the cultural media industry has increased rapidly since February. The current growth rate is expected to have reached 18 times, but PEG is only 1.
07 (lower than other sub-sectors) may be due to the impact of the epidemic on the existence of the film and television industry in the first quarter, and market sentiment severely intervened.
Third, the refinancing New Deal will boost the profitability of GEM stocks in a series.
Considering that it usually takes 6-7 months for a listed company’s M & A and restructuring to take place from the board of directors’ plan to completion, it is expected that the overall improvement in the performance of GEM stocks by the refinancing new policy is also expected to be achieved by 2020.
Fourth, since the issuance of technology ETF funds this year, the trading activity has significantly increased. With reference to the experience of the US market, the emergence and development of ETFs will increase the correlation between individual stocks. It is expected that the degree of differentiation of growth stocks will not be at an extreme for a long time.Extreme state.
Zhongyuan Securities said that the current GEM market is mainly due to the counter-cyclical policy force and favorable direction. After the refinancing new regulations have been implemented, the valuation of small and medium-sized companies has risen. The growth of GEM profits and the changes in the economic structure have contributed to the market change structureThe sexual change reflects the switching of China’s “new” and “old” core assets, alternating short-term event drivers, and other factors, amplifying the breadth and depth of structural market influence.
As more funds continue to flow in and high-quality growth stocks are the buying target, the transformation of the economic structure and the current structural market changes continue to evolve.
Even on the way, due to the estimated periodical repair in place and the rise in risk aversion, the short-term adjustment will not change the basic nature of the market.